Jumping to Conclusion? A Lévy Flight Model of Decision Making

Flight Crew Decision- Making

Jumping to a Conclusion: Fallacies and Standards of Proof

Five errors that fit under the category of jumping to a conclusion are identified: (1) arguing from premises that are insufficient as evidence to prove a conclusion (2) fallacious argument from ignorance, (3) arguing to a wrong conclusion, (4) using defeasible reasoning without being open to exceptions, and (5) overlooking/suppressing evidence. It is shown that jumping to a conclusion is best s...

An AHP-Delphi Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model with Application to Environmental Decision-Making

Prediction of Severity of Delusion Based on Jumping-to-Conclusion Bias in Schizophrenia Patients

Objectives: New cognitive theories of delusions have proposed that deficit or bias in inference stage (a stage of normal belief formation) is significant in delusion formation. The aim of this study was predicting the severity of delusions based on jumping-to-conclusion bias in patients with schizophrenia. Methods: The sample consisted of 60 deluded patients with schizophrenia w...

House of Improvement Model to Enhance Prioritisation of Solutions in Decision Making: a Case Study

The decision making on selection of improvement solutions was one of the obstacles hampering the success of process improvement. This paper presents the House of Improvement (HOI) model as a guideline to link decision criteria for the prioritisation of improvement solutions. Three phases in the HOI are applied to facilitate selection and to ensure that suitable and value-added solutions are cho...